Vaccines, overconfidence and 98% cuts

An open letter makes a strong claim about vaccine effectiveness.

How much do vaccines cut deaths from COVID-19? An open letter from scientists, published in the Mail on Sunday, asserts:

We can be very confident that they will reduce Covid deaths by around 98 per cent and serious illness by 80–85 per cent.

This figure does not come from a vaccine effectiveness study. This post looks at those two claims.

How well do vaccines protect…