Vaccine Efficacy Estimates

News reports shared trial findings of different vaccinations against COVID-19. For example, a BBC headline on 16th November was:

Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

This article looks at what statements about ‘95% protection’ and similar claims mean. This is another way of phrasing vaccine efficacy. It also shows how to calculate approximate uncertainty around those central estimates.

What is vaccine efficacy?

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