There were excess deaths in December 2020

Public Health England: “This data should be interpreted with caution”.

Claims on social media and elsewhere say there were no excess deaths in England in December. This seems to be misunderstanding Public Health England all-cause mortality surveillance report.

In short

• Public Health England all-cause mortality surveillance report shows deaths by when people died.
• The model seeks to account for reporting delays. The figures are subject to revision.
• After revisions, the report shows excess deaths throughout December. The Office for National Statistics records excess deaths with a different calculation method.

Models and revisions

Some assert that there are no excess deaths in England in recent weeks.

For example, Laura Dodsworth (The Critic) wrote:

The two most recent Public Health England All-Cause Mortality Surveillance reports (31 December and 7 January) show no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality. Looking at excess deaths on a graph over previous years, this winter looks fairly typical.

Excess deaths are deaths above a baseline value. The choice of that baseline matters.

For its baseline, the Office for National Statistics uses the average of the last five years. The weekly reports count when the…