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The Right Frame

Did broadcasters show ‘systemic bias’ by focusing on seats?

Anthony B. Masters
5 min readDec 24, 2019

Two academics write that it is a ‘scandal’ that:

seats projections were announced at 10pm, while information on the parties’ national vote shares came along only seven hours later.

This central claim is likely to be misleading, compounded by multiple errors about opinion polling, exit polling methods and the BBC’s coverage.

A solar system of errors

Writing at LSE Blogs, Prof Pippa Norris (Harvard) and Prof Patrick Dunleavy (LSE) say the BBC coverage — based on the broadcasters’ exit poll — established “a dominant narrative…with no counter-notes of any kind”.

The article’s central claim that vote share information only came after 5am is likely to be misleading, with multiple errors orbiting this main misrepresentation.

On the BBC’s election night coverage, the change in vote share (incorrectly showing percentages rather than percentage points) appears throughout the night. This is displayed at the bottom of the coverage, and it is updated after constituencies are declared. The bar flicks between total seats so far, net seat changes and vote share changes.

Here is the results bar (at one hour 35 minutes) after two declarations:

The forecast starts the coverage. (Image: BBC)

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Anthony B. Masters
Anthony B. Masters

Written by Anthony B. Masters

This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.

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