Something Old, Something New

An older article on The Independent website claimed that 2.6m Leave voters had switched to Remain. A newer article said voters backed a new referendum on EU membership, among other statements about public opinion.

This article examines these claims.

‘2.6 million Leave voters’

In September 2018, The Independent reported the results of two YouGov surveys, analysed by Focaldata on behalf of Best for Britain. That group is part of the wider People’s Vote campaign. The article states:

In total, it concluded that 2.6 million Leave voters have switched their support to Remain, while 970,000 have moved the other way — a net gain for the pro-EU side of 1.6 million.

Roughly, these figures suggest that 15% of 2016 Leave voters now back Remain, whilst 6% of Remain voters go the other way.

According to the YouGov website, the company conducted three waves of research on similar questions for the People’s Vote campaign prior to 4th September 2018. The Focaldata analysis appears to be based on the first two waves (“two YouGov polls that together surveyed more than 15,000 people”).

We can see immediately see the issue. (Tables: YouGov/People’s Vote survey)

The Independent article is seemingly comparing:

• 2016 Remain voters who chose Leave in a hypothetical referendum;