Some notes on excess mortality

As I prepared for an interview, I wrote notes on excess deaths.

Excess deaths are deaths from all causes above a baseline. That baseline often represents an expected number of deaths.

Different institutions use different baselines:

• Office for National Statistics: Past 5-year average (2015 to 2019).
• Public Health England: statistical models using the past five years of data.
• EuroMOMO: statistical models of ‘normal’ summers and winters.