Some notes on excess mortality
As I prepared for an interview, I wrote notes on excess deaths.
Excess deaths are deaths from all causes above a baseline. That baseline often represents an expected number of deaths.
Different institutions use different baselines:
- Office for National Statistics: Past 5-year average (2015 to 2019).
- Public Health England: statistical models using the past five years of data.
- EuroMOMO: statistical models of ‘normal’ summers and winters.