Response Options and Exiting the EU

A social media post by Conservative MP Steve Baker claimed “the Brexit majority has increased”. Similarly, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage MEP asserted that Britain is “still Leave”, and “arguably the country is more Leave than it was three years ago”.

Are these claims right? This article examines public survey evidence.

The Binary Question

Steve Baker MP (Conservative, Wycombe) quoted a Mail Online article, under the byline of Prof Matt Goodwin (University of Kent):

Remainers like to claim that, three years on, the facts have changed — that there is actually a voting majority for staying in Europe after all. But the most recent poll suggested that with 57 per cent now backing Leave, the Brexit majority has increased.

When asking if people want to remain or leave the European Union, polling of the EU referendum question and its variants does not show this. The What UK Thinks EU website collates survey data relating to the UK’s relationship with the European Union.

The average Remain share of the last six polls was 52%.

This estimated shift to Remain of four points is principally due to 2016 non-voters preferring Remain to…