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Rate Expectations: Interpreting Polls and the Mail on Sunday
Most people believe the PM will still be in office in 2026.
On Sunday 05 January 2025, the Mail on Sunday published the headline:
POLL: STARMER WILL BE OUT OF No 10 IN A YEAR
The online version started:
Keir Starmer will be out of No 10 within a year, poll predicts: Furious voters deliver damning verdict on PM amid anger over migration, winter fuel payments and inheritance tax on farmers
Deltapoll conducts online interviews for social research. This poll interviewed 1,532 Great British adults between 30 December and 03 January 2025. According to a 2022 methods page, the quotas used are: gender, age, region, and past vote.
This was a long, self-administered survey, covering many political topics. The question was:
If you had to say, for how long do you expect Keir Starmer to remain as Prime Minister?
There were ten response options: ranging from ‘under one year’ to ‘more than fifteen years’. Among respondents in the Deltapoll survey, 13% said they didn’t know.