Prompts and Political Polling

In survey research, how people answer questions can depend on how those questions are worded, what order the questions appear, and what response options are offered.

This article looks at polling performance in the recent European Elections and the different methods employed by UK polling companies.

Overestimation of the Brexit Party

Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party, suggested there was an “establishment attempt to suppress the truth” — after YouGov had the Brexit Party in their secondary prompting.

This is a strange accusation, given most polling companies overestimated Brexit Party support in the recent European Elections.

The two polling companies with the smallest five party mean absolute errors were Ipsos MORI and YouGov.

YouGov overestimated the Brexit Party’s support in that election by five points.

How do different companies prompt?

In internet surveys, people self-administer their answers by clicking options. For vote intention questions, these options appear as radio buttons for people to select. In phone polls, the…