On cases, admissions, and models

Why are cases falling in the UK? For now, it is uncertain.

I put together some notes for a call with a journalist.

Why are confirmed cases falling in the United Kingdom?

If we look at swab specimen dates, then the latest peak in UK confirmed cases was on 15th July. On that date, there were over 60,600 cases.

England is a populous country and so dominates UK-wide statistics. The nations show different peaks. As more cases…