On cases, admissions, and models

Why are cases falling in the UK? For now, it is uncertain.

I put together some notes for a call with a journalist.

Why are confirmed cases falling in the United Kingdom?

If we look at swab specimen dates, then the latest peak in UK confirmed cases was on 15th July. On that date, there were over 60,600 cases.

England is a populous country and so dominates UK-wide statistics. The nations show different peaks. As more cases come in, these figures could revise:

• England: 15th July (56,266; cases recorded up to 28th July)
• Northern Ireland: 19th July (1,670)
• Scotland: 28th June (3,922)
• Wales: 14th July (1,206)

England has a wider definition of confirmed cases than the other nations. Public Health England includes rapid device positives. It excludes those with a negative polymerase chain reaction test within three days.

Looking at rolling case rates per 100,000 people in England, the highest peaks in confirmed cases were in age groups 15–19, 20–24, and 25–29. Those three age groups reached their height at over 1,000 cases per 100,000 people. That means an estimated one in 100 tested positive in one week.

In contrast, none of the over-60s groups hit more than 250 cases per 100,000. Older people were eligible earlier for vaccination and…