Off Target

Did weightings induce a polling error for one company in 2019?

ICM Unlimited conducted voting intention polls for the 2019 election. Their final election poll underestimated the Conservative lead by six points. In Great Britain, the actual lead was around 12 points.

This article considers if their weighting targets induced an error.

Final polls

ICM Unlimited collect internet panel responses, for Great British adults. Their last vote intention poll was for 6–9th December 2019. In final…