Numbers, Letters, and Weapons

The Office for Statistics Regulation sent two letters about claims by two politicians.

This article looks at these claims about poverty and COVID-19 prevalence. Some of these claims were inaccurate, in different ways.

The Prime Minister on Poverty Statistics

In recent months, the Prime Minister claimed:

• “Absolute poverty and relative poverty have both declined under this government.”
• “There are 100,000 fewer children in absolute poverty.”
• “There are…500,000 fewer children falling below low-income and material deprivation.”
• “There are hundreds of thousands — I think 400,000 — fewer families living in poverty now than there were in 2010.”

The Department of Work and Pensions publishes several poverty measures. The official figures are the Households Below Average Income statistics. The latest report is for 2018/19.

These statistics derive from the Family Resources Survey. As survey estimates, there is a plausible range around each figure. The true value could be somewhat higher or lower.

After housing costs, the estimated level of relative poverty was 14.5m in 2018/19 (13.6m — 15.2m). This is the number of individuals in households with an income below 60% of that year’s median income.

This is higher than in the estimate in 2009/10 (13.6m). There are issues with comparisons before…