No Deal for Self-Selecting Surveys

In short

Self-selection bias

The ‘poll’

As the full post says: “Don’t take the result too seriously.” (Source: Facebook/Mr Martin Lewis)

What actual polling says

  1. Out of all three options, ask which one they most prefer;
  2. Ask people to order their preferences, and then compare two options;
  3. Ask people in separate questions which option they prefer from a pair.
A three-way hypothetical referendum shows leaving without a deal is typically ranked second. (Source: What UK Thinks EU)

Ordering preferences

In YouGov’s panel, No Deal loses to both Remain and Deal. (Source: YouGov)
Deltapoll found a different split in the Remain vs No Deal contest. (Source: Deltapoll)

Deal or No Deal

It is a close contest when asked directly: ICM shows a slightly different result to Survation. (Source: What UK Thinks EU)
This suggests there was a large error in the self-selecting survey. (Source: What UK Thinks EU)

--

--

This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.

Love podcasts or audiobooks? Learn on the go with our new app.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Anthony B. Masters

Anthony B. Masters

This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.