MRP and Conservative Remainers

In short

  • MRP outperforms sub-samples: This analysis provides more accurate and robust estimates of public opinion than simply looking at constituency (or state) sub-samples.
  • Model the individual: MRP models the probability that an individual holds an opinion, based on their demography and geography.
  • Estimate constituencies: Weighted averages of these individual probabilities are then calculated, giving an estimate of opinion in each constituency.

The Steps of MRP

  • Numbers of each demographic type in every constituency;
  • Modelled probabilities for survey response based on demography and constituency.

Who did this study?

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This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.

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Anthony B. Masters

Anthony B. Masters

This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.