Mix and Match

The Guardian reports the UK reaching 100,000 COVID-19 deaths.

The Guardian newspaper reports the headline:

UK coronavirus deaths pass 100,000 after 1,564 reported in one day

Neither Public Health England nor the Office for National Statistics report this total. It is a blend of two distinct measures. We should expect UK deaths involving COVID-19 to exceed 100,000 in the future.

Distinct measures

Public Health England (PHE) run the main UK COVID-19 dashboard. This daily report shows two measures of deaths:

Deaths within 28 days of positive test

In England, Scotland and Northern Ireland: deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test. In Wales: this is a count of deaths with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in Welsh hospitals or care homes. There must be clinical suspicion of COVID-19 being a causative factor.

Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate

Statistical offices publish death registration statistics. Medical certificates show diseases that clinicians believe are causes or contributing factors. The Office for National Statistics publishes a UK-wide count of deaths involving COVID-19.

These two measures are distinct. The PHE measure is counting all deaths in a certain time of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Statistics offices counts…