Internal Polls and Mayoral Elections

“Internal polling” claims it has “better methodology”.

An email on behalf of London Mayor candidate Shaun Bailey cites “internal polling”. This email also makes claims about public opinion polling.

In short

• A campaign email claims “a majority of voters” believe their candidate will do a better job as Mayor.
• The campaign neglected to share information, like question wording, about the polling methods.
• The email asserted public polling “looked different” in the 2008 London mayoral election. This is likely to be misleading. Survey research suggested a close contest, with consistent differences between companies.

Hello (from the inside)

An email from the campaign director for Shaun Bailey asserts:

I was looking through our latest internal polling. And I thought you’d want to see this.

At the start of 2020, voters believed Sadiq Khan was the best candidate for Mayor.

They no longer believe this.

A majority of voters now believe Shaun Bailey will do a better job as Mayor.

Releasing the data tables and methods would help. (Image: Twitter/Ladbrokes Politics)

Internal polls are surveys conducted on behalf of a ongoing political campaign. In…