In Excess

What are excess deaths?

Anthony B. Masters
3 min readApr 28, 2020

The Economist is showing excess deaths by various countries. These graphs aim to track the effects of COVID-19. The New York Times has a similar publication. This article looks at excess mortality.

The Economist uses a modelled ‘expected deaths’ line from EuroMOMO. (Image: The Economist)

Three measures

In the UK, there are three different sets of direct measures for COVID-19 deaths. These datasets have strengths and weaknesses.

DHSC & PHE

The Department for Health and Social Care collects new daily death records. Almost all these deaths are in hospitals, but refer to all four nations. Deaths are for people who have tested positive for the virus. The figures are when the records enter the system, not when the deaths occurred. This means we get weekly reporting cycles.

NHS England (Reconciled)

NHS England also provide daily updates of deaths in hospitals in England. The person who died must have tested positive for the virus. NHS England provide this data by both date of record and date of death. This is important for understanding when deaths have occurred.

ONS Death Registrations

The Office for National Statistics collects death certificates across England and wales. The count is for certificates which mention the virus. It…

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Anthony B. Masters

This blog looks at the use of statistics in Britain and beyond. It is written by RSS Statistical Ambassador and Chartered Statistician @anthonybmasters.