General Election 2019 Stat Checks: Week Three

The campaign continued, as did the questionable claims.

In the third week of campaigning for the 2019 General Election, there were many questionable claims by politicians, journalists and campaigners.

The Invisible Cut

Claim: Labour cuts Conservatives’ poll lead to eight points.
Rating: False.
Reasoning: On the Independent website, the article cites a poll by BMG Research, which was sponsored by the news organisation:

Labour has cut the Conservatives’ lead to just eight points in the second week of the general election campaign, according to a poll for The Independent.

The internet panel poll was conducted between 12th and 15th November, and surveyed 1,506 adults in Great Britain.

The article and its headline are comparing that poll to “other polls in recent days” by different polling companies — rather than the same polling series. There are systematic differences between different polling companies, meaning their vote intention estimates should not be compared like this.

In the prior vote intention poll by BMG Research (on 5th to 8th November), the lead was also eight points — it was not “cut”, and is false to claim so.

A £100bn tax cut?

Claim: The Conservative government has given away £100bn in tax cuts.
Rating: Likely…