Fixes, Fiddles and Daily Figures

Did UK government ministers ‘downplay’ the COVID-19 peak?

The Guardian reports there were “nearly 1,500 deaths in one day”. This figure is higher than the daily COVID-19 measure. Sir David King said it was “an attempt to play down the adversity that the country was faced with”.

The front page article led to claims of ‘fixing’ and ‘fiddling’ the daily COVID-19 figures. This article examines these claims.

Differences in measures

The Guardian looks at differences in COVID-19 death measures. The “actual death toll”, here, comes from the three statistical offices:

On 9 April the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, standing in for the hospitalised prime minister, said the death toll had increased by 881 on the previous day. The actual death toll was 64% higher than that.

Note that the graph ends on 28th April. (Image: Guardian)

We can look at their definitions in detail:

• DHSC: Before 29th April, confirmed deaths with COVID-19 in hospitals in England. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, confirmed deaths in all settings. Public Health Wales requires clinical suspicion COVID-19 was causative factor. PHW covers confirmed deaths in hospitals or care homes. After 29th April, the England measure was: confirmed deaths in all places. The measure counts deaths…