Do Voters want ‘No Deal’?

On Twitter, Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (Conservative, North East Somerset) has shared an image which claims [edited for clarity]: “the country wants No Deal” and “No Deal is consistently the preferred option of the British public”. The post has been shared over 3,300 times.

This article will examine the polling questions cited in the image, and consider polling evidence on whether the British public wishes to leave the European Union without any deal (‘No Deal’).

In short

Three-way referendums: In a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving with the negotiated deal, or leaving without a deal, Remain consistently wins.

Selective: The highest figure — corresponding to a question choice between Remain versus No Deal — was selected from a poll of Conservative members.

Popularity: In questions on what to do next (with five options), about 3 in 10 people choose No Deal. The country does not appear to support No Deal.

The Three Figures

The image cites three different polling figures — one of which refers to the Conservative party membership. It is implausible to ask everyone: surveys are used to estimate opinion, and these estimates are subject to uncertainty.