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Do 59% back Scotland staying in the UK?
In a comment article, Pamela Nash (chief executive of Scotland in Union) claimed that:
This is despite there being consistent evidence that I am representing the majority of people in Scotland; a huge 59 per cent would vote to remain in the UK, according to a new poll.
This article examines this claim, and question wording concerning Scotland’s relationship with the United Kingdom.
‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom…’
The figure comes from a Survation internet panel conducted on 12–16th September 2019, funded by Scotland in Union. It is not explicitly acknowledged in Nash’s article that the question Survation asked is different to the one put to Scots in 2014:
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?’, how would you vote?
In the sample of 1,003 Scottish adults aged 16 or over, 54% responded ‘Remain’ and 37% said ‘Leave’. Removing those undecided and refused people gives the 59% figure Nash cites.
This is the third time that Survation have asked this quasi-2016 formulation. The central estimates for ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ are stable from November 2018 to September 2019:
