Diagnoses, Opinion and Flags
What happened to public opinion after the Prime Minister’s test result?
In a popular post on Twitter, The Observer writer Carole Cadwalladr claimed:
the net effect of our prime minister catching COVID-19 was that it prompted a surge of patriotic support.
Opinion polling does not substantiate this belief. The balance of favourable views appeared to fall after the Prime Minister’s test result. In some polls, the PM’s hospital stay may have induced a temporary rise in his personal approval.
A “surge” of support?
Following the US President’s positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, Carole Cadwalladr asserted:
A reminder to all Americans that the net effect of our prime minister catching COVID-19 was that it prompted a surge of patriotic support. From which he emerged with renewed popularity. Which enabled him to tear up key functions of the state
Over 44,000 users shared this claim. This article will look at government and personal approval measures from some companies.
- 11th March: The World Health Organisation declares a global pandemic.
- 16th March: Social distancing guidelines begin. There are recommendations to avoid non-essential travel and work from home.
- 18th March: Schools close to all pupils, except children of key workers.
- 23rd March: In a televised address, the PM issues a stay-at-home order.
- 27th March: The PM and Health Secretary both receive positive test results for the virus.
- 5th April: The Prime Minister enters to hospital with COVID-19.
- 12th April: The Prime Minister leaves hospital, after spending time in intensive care.
Looking at monthly polling may mean entangling any of these effects. There are at least four polling series with weekly or daily estimates. I include: YouGov, Savanta ComRes, Opinium, and Morning Consult (US). Surveys provides estimates, subject to many…