COVID-19 Deaths in Scotland

Are there really no deaths involving COVID-19 in Scotland?

Many media outlets report there are no new deaths involving COVID-19 in Scotland. For example, The Scotsman wrote on 1st August:

No Covid-19 deaths in Scotland for 16 days as 18 new cases confirmed

On 29th July, The National had the headline:

Covid-19: Scotland records 12th day with no virus deaths

These statements refer to the daily measure produced by Public Health Scotland. In contrast, there are still deaths which mention COVID-19 on the certificate. This article looks at the differences in these two measures.

The two measures

There are different ways to count deaths involving COVID-19 in Scotland. There are daily figures from Public Health Scotland. In addition, there are weekly stats from National Records Scotland.

• Public Health Scotland: deaths in all settings registered with National Records Scotland. The death must occur within 28 days of the first positive test result for SARS-CoV-2.
• National Records of Scotland: the death certificate mentions COVID-19. This mention is either as a causal link or a contributory factor.

I look at what Medical Certificates of Cause of Death show in another article.

We could also compare NRS-recorded deaths from all causes to a baseline. Statisticians call that…