Communicating Uncertainty

What can we do to show how uncertain we are?

Statistics is the science of data and uncertainty. Uncertainty is an inherent part of statistics, affecting analyses and interpretations. Uncertainty is unavoidable when seeking to predict the future.

Communicating that uncertainty to others is often crucial. If people are aware of how uncertain estimates are, that could affect their decisions.

Uncertainty and why it matters

The Government Statistical Service hosted a recent webinar on how we communicate uncertainty. The speakers were:

• Charles Lound (Office for National Statistics)
• Cathryn Blair (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency)
• Dr Sarah Dryhurst (Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication)
• Jonathan Tecywn (Department for Education)

As the Government Statistical Service guidance says:

Uncertainty is an inherent aspect of statistics, but the term is often misinterpreted, possibly implying that the statistics are unusable, or simply wrong. As a result, statistics producers might have understandable concern that…