Clear Red Water

Polling of Labour members registered for LabourList is not “clear”.

The campaign group Momentum asserted “the polling is clear”:

The overwhelmingly majority of Labour members support the 2019 manifesto, while more members oppose the attack on [Jeremy Corbyn] than support it.

Survation’s polling of Labour members registered for LabourList was not “clear”. In that question, there was only a difference of around one point between the two options.

Previously in 2020…

In the 2020 leadership contest, Survation did two polls of LabourList registrants. These registrants also had to be members of the Labour party. These two polls were on 8th — 13th January and 21st — 24th February.

Survation’s poll of 1,196 LabourList registrants estimated Starmer’s support at 45%. YouGov’s polling of Labour members in their internet panel estimated that figure to be around 53%. YouGov’s survey of 1,323 Labour members was on 20th — 25th February.

For Starmer’s share, there was a difference of about eight points between the two companies. The voting period for the leadership election ended on Thursday 2nd April. There may have been some change in vote intentions after the polling.

Survation’s central estimate for Long-Bailey was 31%. (Image: Labour)