Away from government

How close were Labour from forming a government in 2017?

The 2017 General Election ended in a hung parliament: the Conservatives won 317 seats. Several articles claimed Labour were 2,227 votes away from the chance of government.

That statistic has enjoyed a recent renaissance on social media. Guardian columnist Owen Jones asserted:

Labour came within 2,227 votes and seven constituencies of forming a government in 2017.

This article examines the claim. The original analysis miscalculated or misstated the figure, relying on adamant assumptions.

What ‘2,227 votes’ means

In the 2017 General Election, the Conservatives had 13.6m votes and 317 seats. Labour received 12.9m votes and 262 seats. Since the Conservative seat total was less than 326: it was a hung parliament.

In Great Britain, the Conservatives won a vote share of 43.4%, up 5.8 points on 2015. For Labour, their vote share was 41.0% — an increase of 9.8 points from the 2015 election.

In a UK General Election, each constituency is a separate election. The voting system elects whichever candidate wins the most votes. This is often…