A Winter in Excess
How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect excess winter mortality?
Statistics offices often compare deaths in winter months, against those in other months.
This article looks at the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess winter deaths. Those impacts highlight problems in using this measure as a proxy for deaths due to cold weather.
Excess winter deaths
Excess winter deaths are a constructed statistical measure. The calculation counts deaths in December to March — ‘winter’ months. We then subtract half of the deaths in August to November and half in April to July. These deaths are from all causes. There is also an index: excess winter deaths divided by average non-winter deaths.
The Office for National Statistics uses deaths occurring in those months. There is an estimation of late registrations, for complicated deaths. Their statistics covers England and Wales. National Records Scotland uses deaths by registration date, for deaths in Scotland.
We can see this calculation in the latest NRS report:
The excess winter death statistic is:
- 21,392 − (18,973 + 22,711)/2 = 21,392 − 20,842 = 550
