A simple Bayesian analysis of surveys
What share of UK adults gave the right answer to a statistical question?
2 min readMar 27, 2022
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Classical statistics thinks of probability as the long-run frequency of events. The Bayesian approach considers probability as a degree of belief. The language of probability then describes uncertainty in unknown quantities.
The Royal Statistical Society commissioned a survey of the public, asking this question:
- Question 1: If you toss a fair coin twice, what is the probability of getting two…