A simple Bayesian analysis of surveys

What share of UK adults gave the right answer to a statistical question?

Classical statistics thinks of probability as the long-run frequency of events. The Bayesian approach considers probability as a degree of belief. The language of probability then describes uncertainty in unknown quantities.

The Royal Statistical Society commissioned a survey of the public, asking this question:

• Question 1: If you toss a fair coin twice, what is the probability of getting two…