# A simple Bayesian analysis of surveys

## What share of UK adults gave the right answer to a statistical question?

Classical statistics thinks of probability as the long-run frequency of events. **The Bayesian approach considers probability as a degree of belief. **The language of probability then describes uncertainty in unknown quantities.

The Royal Statistical Society commissioned a survey of the public, asking this question:

**Question 1**: If you toss a fair coin twice, what is the probability of getting two…