A Phantom Poll of Scotland

Survey research offers an important mirror on society.

Occasionally, opinion polls can conjured into existence — to suit partisan leanings. This article looks at a recent example with a supposed survey of Scottish adults.

Ex nihilo

In response to a ComRes internet panel poll conducted on 24–25th July, a Twitter account claimed there was a Scottish opinion poll. This survey of Scotland apparently showed Labour overtaking the Conservatives:

New Scottish poll has Labour overtaking the Tories…
Lab +2
Con -3…
Tories would be wiped out in Scotland…

There are multiple avenues of suspicion: no company has been named,the central estimates are missing (what share did they change to?), and the fieldwork dates are unknown.

Importantly, neither the position nor change of the Scottish National Party has been stated.