A Degree of Extrapolation

Drawing a straight line into the future may lead to error.

A headline in The Times claimed:

First-class degrees for all students by 2030

This article examines that claim, showing the degree of uncertainty with such forecasts.

Indicative projections

The headline itself refers only to particular universities, and not to all students in UK institutions. The second paragraph contradicts the headline:

If the inflation continues at its present rate, every student in the UK would achieve a first in 38 years’ time, the projections indicate.

The projection is described later in The Times article:

The Times used the four years of available data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency and calculated the average year-on-year increase for those four years, then projected it into the future.

HESA has more than four years of available data, holding previous reports on student statistics. There are five academic years shown in the latest report:

About half of first-degree graduates achieve a Upper Second. (Image: HESA)

The proportion of classified first-degree graduates achieving a First has increased from 20% in 2013/14 to 28% in 2017/18.